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PGA Championship: Picks and Preview

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The PGA Tour’s best head to Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York for the season’s final major. This year’s PGA Championship (“Glory’s Last Shot” no longer, as per the PGA’s marketing mavens) is many things, including another major Tiger Woods really should/needs to/wants to win, lest the world No. 1 extend his major drought into another golf season.

Woods, of course, did not play well the last time the PGA Championship came to Oak Hill, when Shaun Micheel’s iconic seven-iron approach shot at the final hole secured his only Tour victory. The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational winner carded a 12-over 292 and finished 39th at the 2003 PGA Championship at Oak Hill, 16 shots behind Micheel.

Since the 2003 PGA Championship, only two holes have been modified. The par-four 17th hole has been lengthened, as has the 18th hole. Still, Oak Hill is only 7,136 yards and thick rough (thicker, due to a wet June and July) will be the course’s primary defense.

A predictably strong field is piled behind favorite Woods at the Donald Ross-designed course this year.

Let’s have a look at who could be lifting the Wanamaker on Sunday.

Tiger Woods: 7-2 odds*

A commanding performance at a course he has historically dominated last week solidified Tiger Woods’ position as the favorite to win the final major of the year. Predictably, his odds reflect this.

Tiger has played well enough from tee to green to win a major this year. Removing the anomaly of the 15th hole at Augusta from the equation, the story of Tiger’s 2013 majors has been difficulty with the putter (lines at Merion, speed at Muirfield) and sputtering out on the weekend. If he makes putts and plays the same way on the weekend that he does on Thursday and Friday, Woods will win the Wanamaker.

Phil Mickelson: 14-1 odds

No. 4 - Phil Mickelson

The winner of the season’s third major, Phil Mickelson notched a respectable T-21 finish at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in his first tournament following the major triumph. Mickelson has won two of the last three tournaments he’s entered, however the fact that he’ll need a driver in the bag this week makes it unlikely he’ll win his second major of 2013.

Adam Scott: 16-1 odds

The Masters Champion tied for third at the Open Championship and finished inside the top 15 at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Scotty hits the ball long and straight, and finished inside the top 25 last time the PGA Championship was held at Oak Hill. It’d be surprising to see him outside the top 10 come Sunday.

Henrik Stenson: 25-1 odds

One of the hottest golfers in the world at present, Henrik Stenson enters the PGA Championship on the heels of a T-2 finish in Akron. Prior to that, the native of Gothenburg, Sweden, finished runner-up to Phil Mickelson at the Open Championship. It’s difficult to see Stenson finishing worse than 15th this week.

Justin Rose: 25-1 odds

Justin-Rose-2013-

There haven’t been many multiple major winners in recent memory, and Justin Rose hasn’t sent up any signal flairs that he’s likely to win his second major of 2013.

Since his U.S. Open win, Rose missed the cut at the Open Championship. However, he finished tied for 17th at the WGC-Bridgestone last week. Ranked 146th on tour in strokes gained-putting, he will need a sustained hot streak with the flat stick if he’s going to collect more major hardware.

Brandt Snedeker: 28-1 odds

Much has been written about Brandt Snedeker’s improvements in accuracy off the tee and into greens. Much has been written, too, about Snedeker’s nagging rib injury.

However, Snedeker has played (and played well) the past three weeks. The Tennesseean is a streaky player, and it’s easier to be confident in his chances the more he plays.

Jason Dufner: 33-1 odds

It’s not a bold prediction to say that the winner at the PGA Championship will be near the top of the field in fairways and greens. Jason Dufner is inside the top 40 on Tour in both categories and could make amends for his 2011 PGA Championship playoff loss this year.

Keegan Bradley: 33-1 odds

Keegan_Bradley_WGC-Bridgestone_

The man who Jason Dufner lost to at the 2011 PGA Championship, Keegan Bradley drove the ball well at Firestone last week. The Vermont native carded a quality final-round 67, propelling him to a T-2 finish behind Tiger Woods. Certainly, his major triumph of three years ago will be on the golfer’s mind this week. Perhaps it will be the extra bit of motivation to get the golfer fired up and into “Ryder Cup Keegan” mode.

Hunter Mahan: 33-1 odds

A golf writer’s dream: Hunter Mahan withdraws from a tournament he’s leading to be with his wife for the birth of their first child, returns to competitive golf at the PGA Championship two weeks later and wins. A relaxed (and likely sleep-deprived) Mahan could contend this week.

Zach Johnson: 40-1 odds

A quality ballstriker who always seems to fly under the radar, Johnson has played well lately finishing inside the top 10 in his last three starts. As he averages only 278 yards off the tee, he’s at a disadvantage on longer tracks. However, as Oak Hill is barely 7,000 yards, Johnson’s relative lack of distance shouldn’t be an issue.

Ultimately, Johnson has the tools, is a major winner and has been hot lately. The Iowan is a quality dark horse pick and is a value at 40-1 odds.

*odds according to Bovada

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7 Comments

7 Comments

  1. Jon Walker

    Aug 7, 2013 at 5:35 pm

    Is there a Fantasy Challenge for the PGA? I can’t find it in the Forums

  2. aaron

    Aug 7, 2013 at 2:59 pm

    Per Butch Harmon Phil will be carrying a 12 degree metal….call it a 2 wood, very strong 3 wood, week driver, or whatever else you want…length will not be an issue for Phil this week and if he can hit his spots off the tee he will be a serious threat to the field

    • Ben Alberstadt

      Aug 7, 2013 at 3:22 pm

      Thanks for pointing this out. As of yesterday, multiple sources indicated he’d have a driver in the bag, which was odd (as one of my detractors points out above) given the length of the course. I agree that if he hits the two wood like he hit his three wood at Muirfield, Mickelson will be a serious contender this week.

  3. DAN

    Aug 7, 2013 at 11:57 am

    Phil is not carrying his driver, per ESPN today.

  4. Arthur J

    Aug 7, 2013 at 10:44 am

    Per Phil and Zach J, if the course it so short (i.e. short enough to make length not an issue), then why will Phil need to use a driver?

    Make your mind up…

    • Dan

      Aug 7, 2013 at 1:22 pm

      Agreed. Exactly the same logic and point I was going to make, but you beat me to it.

  5. Nick

    Aug 7, 2013 at 10:17 am

    No Snedeker odds? I would like to think he should be in it over Mahan. Hmm

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