Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

Mickelson’s tax math wasn’t so crazy after all

Published

11 years ago

on

Auditing firm KPMG, one of Phil Mickelson’s primary sponsors, couldn’t have expected the golfer’s tax situation would make headlines during the 2013 golf season. However, for the second time this year, the share the second-ranked golfer is forking over to the government is in the news.

This time it isn’t Mickelson who has thrust his finances front and center, rather its the work of a variety of news outlets who have determined that Open Championship winner will be paying more than 60 percent of his winnings from that competition in taxes.

Mickelson’s tax situation first made headlines after the Humana Challenge earlier this year. Seemingly out of the blue, the golfer famously stated,

“If you add up all of the federal and you look at disibility and unemployment and the social security and the state, my tax rate is 62, 63 percent?”

Fallout from Mickelson’s bizarre non sequitur was as predictable as his series of apologies. In one camp, there were those who took Phil to task for discussing his finances publicly, believing that a man who plays golf for a living ought to stack his millions in silence. In the opposing camp, those who lauded Mickelson for shining a light on the tax situations of top golfers, who as ostensibly self-employed individuals, face a larger tax burden than many professional athletes.

The third popular response to Phil Mickelson’s claims that he pays more than 60 percent of his income in taxes went something like this: “How the heck is that possible?”

Well, it turns out it is possible, at least with respect to the golfer’s winnings in the UK: Lefty will be paying taxes in excess of 60 percent on his $1.43 million Open Championship winner’s check.

Of course, as the winner of the Scottish Open the week prior, he’s due to get hit hard on those earnings as well. Combined, Mickelson will forfeit about 61 percent on his earnings from the British and Scottish Opens, an estimated $2,167,500.

Phil_Mickelson_Open_Championship

How is this possible?

Well, the United Kingdom has set Scotland’s tax rate at 45 percent above £150,000. Thus, Mickelson is due to pay £636,069 ($954,000, or 44.02 percent) on his Scottish winnings.

Additional federal taxes leveled by the U.S. government include a 2.9 percent self-employment tax and a 0.9 percent Medicare surtax.

Beyond this, as California does not have a foreign tax credit, he’s obligated to fork over 13.3 percent to his home state.

Mickelson’s math, with respect to his earnings within the U.S. was a bit off, to be sure. According to CNN Money, it’s unlikely the left-hander pays much more than 50 percent in taxes, which still means Uncle Sam is eating a sizable piece of Mickelsonian pie. However, Mickelson’s “pie” last year was nearly $50 million, according to Forbes, so Amy won’t be serving Ramen at the at their Rancho Santa Fe residence any time soon.

Whether this is fundamentally just is a question that is likely split along party lines here in the states.  Regardless of whether you feel the government (governments, in this case) should keep its hands out of Mickelson’s trouser pockets and applaud him for speaking out, or think that he should be happy with the millions he takes home every year for playing a game, it’s shocking (I think) to see the following breakdown:

Of the $2,167,500 Mickelson earned on his sojurn across the pond, after taxes and expenses, the golfer will take home only about $650,000.

Of course, he took home the claret jug, too.

Your Reaction?
  • 0
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW1
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

Related Topics:

GolfWRX Editor-in-Chief

36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. naflack

    Jul 27, 2013 at 1:43 am

    i like phil, always have and i dont take issue with the fact that he is rich. my issue isnt with phil at all, it is more with so many who want to speak on behalf of the wealthy and the middle class, conveniantly putting both into neat little boxes i.e. rich guy = works hard and is a great american, middle class = dumb and lazy parasite.
    working 2 jobs that equal 60 hours a week is working hard just the same as phil beating balls for hours in 95 degree heat. one is a fine upstanding citizen and the other has made poor choices in life or they would also be rich. unfortunately if this were true there would be no one to deliver your pizza or change your oil cause they too would be wealthy and wouldnt need to toil in unskilled labor.
    again, the issue isnt the opinions on taxation, i tend to agree that the typical wage earner actually does get hosed in the grand scheme of things. the issue is the typical mindset that suggests if im not rich im a lazy parasite who wants to ride someone elses coat tails.

    Reply Report comment

  2. Conservative

    Jul 26, 2013 at 11:41 pm

    I can literally read these responses and tell exactly which way each person voted in the last election…

    As for the article, I believe he was reflecting on what Phil said earlier in the year and drawing a parallel to the astronomical amount he was taxed this past week. He never said he agreed with it or not. It makes for an interesting article.

    I agree nobody wants to hear Phil talk about how much he has been taxed and we obviously have a lot of people who think he has been taxed what he says and plenty who think it is ridiculous that he could be taxed that much. He really is the only one who knows besides the government. Phil is a pretty smart guy and I have not seen him make many remarks without being very calculated in what he says. You can throw numbers around all you want and make an outcome that suits your belief, but the bottom line is that he owns a business and I am pretty sure he probably knows where a lot of his money goes. He has an American right by the tax code to write off travel and other business expenses. This is money spent on his business to keep it running. I do not understand the animosity that some of these progressives have for a man that works hard, pays what is required of him and does a lot for the community. I am not rich and Phil is not my favorite player, but I have to admit that I was happy when Phil stood up and said something. I don’t think he would have one problem with paying the amount that he does if he felt that government was spending one bit of it wisely.

    When did it become bad to make a good living by working hard? Yes I know Phil plays golf, but you cannot deny he works hard. If you are on this website looking around and say to yourself, “I would not trade places with him, play pro golf, won big $ and lots of tournaments;” then you are a hater.

    Reply Report comment

  3. Determined

    Jul 26, 2013 at 10:32 pm

    Dbl e

    You can dismiss the comparison between Phil and Detroit but the reason Detroit is Bankrupt is people like you that see and hate success?? Answer the question everyone in this great country ad the same opportunity as Phil and you find it fair to punish him with this success?? did they’re retake any of your grades and divide ??? You would not accept this but it’s OK for everyone else.

    Reply Report comment

  4. Dbl E

    Jul 26, 2013 at 8:52 pm

    Enough with Detroit. Comparing PM’s taxes and the bankruptcy of a metropolitan city is comparing apples and Detroit. My only point is that an über wealthy golfer, whose game I admire, has zero business complaining about getting taxed on the 2 million he made wacking a ball around when people are losing jobs and homes. As far as paying his team a percentage of his earnings lets not forget he is rich enough to afford a team, none of whom he is in any way obligated to employ except maybe his caddie. I’m not sure about that on tour. I don’t hate. He makes what he makes and I’m fine with it. Just don’t publically complain about the woes of being rich.

    Reply Report comment

  5. Jamie

    Jul 26, 2013 at 7:48 pm

    Someone else touched on it earlier. In addition to the gigantic tax burden, he’s paying Bones (likely 10% of the $2.2M), hi agent, a manager and probably countless other professionals he needs to keep the business running.

    Reply Report comment

  6. Dbl E

    Jul 26, 2013 at 4:57 pm

    Here is a point I think everyone should be mindful of; if there were a formula to rank the best teachers, policemen or women, etc. in the country, the best golfers would out-earn those significantly more important, more valuable pros by 100,000 country miles. Lets also not forget that he has a bed on his private jet, commutes to work via helicopter and has companies piling his driveway with free cars, clothes, Rolexes and amenities pretty much everyone else on the planet pays full freight for. And when he does pay, he ain’t paying 3900.00 a gallon for gas because he makes more money than us regulars paying 3.90 for unleaded. When it comes to the conversation regarding what a fair tax rate is, especially in this day, someone running a business trying to find a way to keep the five people on his payroll employed should always be the voice above the fold and not a golfer worth half a billion dollars. GOLFWRX is losing perspective by posting this insulting article. And let the author defend his stance, not his pal.

    Reply Report comment

    • Determined

      Jul 26, 2013 at 5:35 pm

      DBL

      Here is also the point you need to realize? If Phil plays terrible how much does he earn?? Did all those Teachers, fireman or women have the opportunity to earn a living at golf?? When you attended school did they ever take some of your grades and dived amount other people? Maybe they didn’t study that hard or maybe wasn’t as dedicated to the project but yet WE should award this behavior??? This attitude is why Detroit is bankrupt???

      WOW why do you hate so bad

      Reply Report comment

    • naflack

      Jul 26, 2013 at 6:42 pm

      I think the majority of us lecherous Americans would tend to agree with you but of course we are parasites in the eyes the wealthy, so who cares what we think anyway…right?

      Reply Report comment

  7. c

    Jul 26, 2013 at 4:56 pm

    Wouldn’t he have incorporated himself. That way he can pay a salary to his agent, sports psychologist, Bones, Butch Harmon, his wife, an assistant, etc out of his corporation. That would bring his total income down a bit but I guess his earnings out of the corporation would still be into the multi-millions per year.

    Reply Report comment

  8. Ryan

    Jul 26, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    I hate to rain on the authors parade here, but Phil’s statement was basically “taxes in the US are too high”. To say “Phil is right! Look, he was taxed at a ridiculous rate outside the US” really, really misses the point of his statement.

    Reply Report comment

    • Zak Kozuchowski

      Jul 26, 2013 at 1:17 pm

      Nothing in the story suggests that Ben was taking Phil’s tax comments literally. How do I know? It’s in the story!

      “Mickelson’s math, with respect to his earnings within the U.S. was a bit off, to be sure.”

      I don’t see how people who have comprehended the story can say that Ben has “missed the point.” Clearly, he didn’t.

      – Zak

      Reply Report comment

  9. Determined

    Jul 26, 2013 at 9:57 am

    Can someone say DETROIT…. It wont be long as if I would admit I’m a Democrat I would hide knowing what Democrats did to this great city. They followed the Democrat Model just like they are doing to Phil and America and amazing it didnt work????

    Reply Report comment

  10. Les

    Jul 26, 2013 at 7:06 am

    The author is absolutely wrong with regard to Phil’s stateside taxation.

    39% for federal income tax
    13% for state income tax
    6.2-12.4% Social Security – I assume he’s self employed and pays both employer and employee rates
    3.8% Medicare tax
    God knows what else he pays for local wage taxes, property and school tax, sales tax, etc.

    Reply Report comment

  11. Alüminyum Boru

    Jul 26, 2013 at 3:08 am

    good artical for me. thank you.

    Reply Report comment

  12. naflack

    Jul 26, 2013 at 1:30 am

    at least we were able to keep politics out of this for a little while…

    Reply Report comment

  13. cg

    Jul 25, 2013 at 6:38 pm

    remember, all the parasites need a host to feed off of…heaven forbid that they actually pay for their own food, rent, cellphone, school lunch, school breakfast, school supplies, bus fare, etc.

    far better to let someone else do it…but be sure to vote for the poverty pimp who promises stuff if you keep him in office..

    until you become DETROIT!!!

    Reply Report comment

  14. W

    Jul 25, 2013 at 4:33 pm

    Yes we would all like to have his problem, but is 60% plus fair? The top 1% pay 35-40 of the 3 trillion collected annually by the US Government. I don’t have a problem paying taxes but a huge problem the way they spend them.

    Small business owner

    Reply Report comment

  15. Dbl E

    Jul 25, 2013 at 12:49 pm

    That may be the tax on paper, but what’s the reality of someone in PM’s position regarding opportunities to shelter that money in a way 99% of us can’t? He’s not handing his W-4 over to Stan at H&R Block. I’m pretty sure what he says he pays and what his KPMG team actually pay are very different. And the fact remains, he plays golf for approx. 50 mil per. Anyone crying for him needs to get off his jock because he is spending exactly ZERO time worrying about your bank account.

    Reply Report comment

    • jason

      Jul 25, 2013 at 4:58 pm

      Regarding opportunities to shelter they are few and far between for a wage earner, which Phil is. He can deduct travel costs probably, he doesnt get many of the normal deductions because he earns too much. He can max out retirement accounts tax free. But that is capped around 20k annually. Hardly a “shelter” when he just coughed up nearly 1.6 million in taxes for a 2.1 milion dollar win. I know it is a lot of money and he isnt suffering, but these same laws affect the guy bustin his tail every day doing a great job owning a small business who might make 275K one year and 75K the next, and paid 100k in taxes on his good year. Now stripped of hard earned cash he fires three employees and tries to make it work, with a high probablility the IRS will look at his 75K and call him a liar the next year and come after him. Investment earnings can be more easily sheltered. Wage earnings cannot.

      Reply Report comment

  16. naflack

    Jul 25, 2013 at 12:13 pm

    Considering his original comments were regarding his tax situation in the states, not abroad, this doesn’t do much to support his argument. As many people stated at the time of his original comments, he’s not paying anywhere near that, that’s the role of accountants and tax experts for the wealthy and you know he’ s taking advantage of their services. I get it, this wraps up his original comments with a pretty ribbon but none the less these are rare and very distinct circumstances which apply to exceedingly few. Plus he could always opt out of playing across the pond but i’m guessing he’ll figure out a way to be happy in spite of this very very unfortunate circumstance (insert eye roll).

    Reply Report comment

    • Jeff

      Jul 25, 2013 at 1:43 pm

      his comments were regarding CA state tax, which went up before the year. If you read the article, you’ll see he’s paying 13.3% in california because there’s no foreign tax credit (which many states have). If there were a foreign tax credit, he might even get money back from CA…assuming he didn’t make anything else in the US (which he already did by finishing second at he US Open).

      Reply Report comment

      • naflack

        Jul 25, 2013 at 3:03 pm

        I read the entire article and the article regarding his earlier comments on the matter…
        Why should California give him a tax credit for taxes paid in another country, that isn’t California’s problem?
        If another state in the union is willing to give people this form of tax credit then perhaps Phil should move there per his original statement. This isn’t any different than a poor person asking for a handout!

        Reply Report comment

        • naflack

          Jul 25, 2013 at 3:07 pm

          Furthermore, if he doesn’t want to move he should lobby to have the tax code changed instead of publicly whining about a problem that every American would love to have.

          Reply Report comment

        • Jason

          Jul 26, 2013 at 4:27 pm

          Why should California get money earned in another country?

          There are alot of sides to this and unless this conversation is taking place between a bunch of tax experts then you probably have no clue what your talking about and you should be quiet.

          Reply Report comment

          • naflack

            Jul 26, 2013 at 6:35 pm

            By that logic there shouldn’t be an article or any subsequent commentary from anyone outside the situation which I suspect includes you as well…good day.

            Reply Report comment

    • jason

      Jul 25, 2013 at 4:14 pm

      This post shows the ignorance of the common american on taxes. Those who can use accountants are THE “wealthy” investors who have most of their income paid in dividends and as capitol gains, this can be hidden shifted and parlayed other ways. In short investment income is taxed differently. ANY wage earner salaried or otherwise (Rapper, Actor, Small business owner, professional athlete) will be subject to a tax on their income. It is generally inescapable (a few deductions here or there but not a significant amount). For Phil in the US it probably breaks down as such. US income tax 39% california tax 13.5% Social Security and other fees 5-7%. There is no magic for a wealthy wage earner. Phil really and truly does most likely pay around 60% here in the U.S in taxes. That is the truth of the matter, the fact that you make less, and want a slice of his pie doesnt make it any more morally correct that he pays his and millions others fair share.

      Reply Report comment

      • naflack

        Jul 26, 2013 at 1:27 am

        i know people in high level finance positions and tax experts, i also know wealthy people who earn their money through investment as opposed to labor. you may be correct in that phil pays federal which most people dont but based on repeated conversations with these people i trust…i’ll stand by my comment, he is not paying 60% of his total income in tax. the things he could write off alone drops that amount, not to mention charitable donations.
        who the hell said anything about wanting a slice of phils pie?
        please speak for yourself.

        Reply Report comment

  17. 8thehardway

    Jul 25, 2013 at 11:09 am

    “One for you, one, two for me.” I forget which comedy that line came from but am often reminded of the math.

    Reply Report comment

  18. Kris

    Jul 25, 2013 at 11:06 am

    I thought we in Canada (as a socialist country) would be a lot higher taxed. But our top tax rates (depending on province) go between 39% (oil rich Alberta) to 50% (Nova Scotia for some reason). Mostly between 42 and 45. And to get over 35 in most places you have to earn 6 figures.

    Reply Report comment

    • John

      Jul 25, 2013 at 1:19 pm

      See, the thing is, (we) Americans don’t really have all the freedom many think we have.

      Reply Report comment

  19. Big_5_Hole

    Jul 25, 2013 at 11:03 am

    “Of the $2,167,500 Mickelson earned on his sojurn across the pond, after taxes and expenses, the golfer will take home only about $650,000.”

    That is obscene. No wonder the super-rich try and hide their money.

    Reply Report comment

Leave a Reply

Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

24 hours ago

on

Apr 18, 2024

By

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

Your Reaction?
  • 17
  • LEGIT5
  • WOW1
  • LOL1
  • IDHT2
  • FLOP2
  • OB1
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

24 hours ago

on

Apr 18, 2024

By

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

Your Reaction?
  • 0
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

4 days ago

on

Apr 15, 2024

By

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

Your Reaction?
  • 30
  • LEGIT5
  • WOW2
  • LOL1
  • IDHT1
  • FLOP2
  • OB0
  • SHANK2

Continue Reading

WITB

Whats in the Bag2 days ago

Collin Morikawa WITB 2024 (April)

Collin Morikawa what’s in the bag accurate as of the RBC Heritage. More photos from the event here.  Driver: TaylorMade...
Whats in the Bag2 days ago

WITB Time Machine: Jordan Spieth’s winning WITB, 2022 RBC Heritage

At the 2022 RBC Heritage Jordan Spieth defeated Patrick Cantlay on the first playoff hole after nearly holing his greenside...
Whats in the Bag3 days ago

Jason Day WITB 2024 (April)

Jason Day what’s in the bag accurate as of the RBC Heritage.  Driver: Ping G430 LST (9 degrees @10) Shaft: TPT...
Whats in the Bag3 days ago

Ludvig Åberg WITB 2024 (April)

Ludvig Åberg what’s in the bag accurate as of the RBC Heritage.  Driver: Titleist TSR2 (9 degrees, D4 SureFit setting)...

Facebook

Trending