Opinion & Analysis

Mickelson’s tax math wasn’t so crazy after all

Published

11 years ago

Jul 25, 2013

Auditing firm KPMG, one of Phil Mickelson’s primary sponsors, couldn’t have expected the golfer’s tax situation would make headlines during the 2013 golf season. However, for the second time this year, the share the second-ranked golfer is forking over to the government is in the news.

This time it isn’t Mickelson who has thrust his finances front and center, rather its the work of a variety of news outlets who have determined that Open Championship winner will be paying more than 60 percent of his winnings from that competition in taxes.

Mickelson’s tax situation first made headlines after the Humana Challenge earlier this year. Seemingly out of the blue, the golfer famously stated,

“If you add up all of the federal and you look at disibility and unemployment and the social security and the state, my tax rate is 62, 63 percent?”

Fallout from Mickelson’s bizarre non sequitur was as predictable as his series of apologies. In one camp, there were those who took Phil to task for discussing his finances publicly, believing that a man who plays golf for a living ought to stack his millions in silence. In the opposing camp, those who lauded Mickelson for shining a light on the tax situations of top golfers, who as ostensibly self-employed individuals, face a larger tax burden than many professional athletes.

The third popular response to Phil Mickelson’s claims that he pays more than 60 percent of his income in taxes went something like this: “How the heck is that possible?”

Well, it turns out it is possible, at least with respect to the golfer’s winnings in the UK: Lefty will be paying taxes in excess of 60 percent on his $1.43 million Open Championship winner’s check.

Of course, as the winner of the Scottish Open the week prior, he’s due to get hit hard on those earnings as well. Combined, Mickelson will forfeit about 61 percent on his earnings from the British and Scottish Opens, an estimated $2,167,500.

How is this possible?

Well, the United Kingdom has set Scotland’s tax rate at 45 percent above £150,000. Thus, Mickelson is due to pay £636,069 ($954,000, or 44.02 percent) on his Scottish winnings.

Additional federal taxes leveled by the U.S. government include a 2.9 percent self-employment tax and a 0.9 percent Medicare surtax.

Beyond this, as California does not have a foreign tax credit, he’s obligated to fork over 13.3 percent to his home state.

Mickelson’s math, with respect to his earnings within the U.S. was a bit off, to be sure. According to CNN Money, it’s unlikely the left-hander pays much more than 50 percent in taxes, which still means Uncle Sam is eating a sizable piece of Mickelsonian pie. However, Mickelson’s “pie” last year was nearly $50 million, according to Forbes, so Amy won’t be serving Ramen at the at their Rancho Santa Fe residence any time soon.

Whether this is fundamentally just is a question that is likely split along party lines here in the states. Regardless of whether you feel the government (governments, in this case) should keep its hands out of Mickelson’s trouser pockets and applaud him for speaking out, or think that he should be happy with the millions he takes home every year for playing a game, it’s shocking (I think) to see the following breakdown:

Of the $2,167,500 Mickelson earned on his sojurn across the pond, after taxes and expenses, the golfer will take home only about $650,000.

Of course, he took home the claret jug, too.

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36 Comments

naflack

Jul 27, 2013 at 1:43 am

i like phil, always have and i dont take issue with the fact that he is rich. my issue isnt with phil at all, it is more with so many who want to speak on behalf of the wealthy and the middle class, conveniantly putting both into neat little boxes i.e. rich guy = works hard and is a great american, middle class = dumb and lazy parasite.
working 2 jobs that equal 60 hours a week is working hard just the same as phil beating balls for hours in 95 degree heat. one is a fine upstanding citizen and the other has made poor choices in life or they would also be rich. unfortunately if this were true there would be no one to deliver your pizza or change your oil cause they too would be wealthy and wouldnt need to toil in unskilled labor.
again, the issue isnt the opinions on taxation, i tend to agree that the typical wage earner actually does get hosed in the grand scheme of things. the issue is the typical mindset that suggests if im not rich im a lazy parasite who wants to ride someone elses coat tails.

Reply Report comment
Conservative

Jul 26, 2013 at 11:41 pm

I can literally read these responses and tell exactly which way each person voted in the last election…

As for the article, I believe he was reflecting on what Phil said earlier in the year and drawing a parallel to the astronomical amount he was taxed this past week. He never said he agreed with it or not. It makes for an interesting article.

I agree nobody wants to hear Phil talk about how much he has been taxed and we obviously have a lot of people who think he has been taxed what he says and plenty who think it is ridiculous that he could be taxed that much. He really is the only one who knows besides the government. Phil is a pretty smart guy and I have not seen him make many remarks without being very calculated in what he says. You can throw numbers around all you want and make an outcome that suits your belief, but the bottom line is that he owns a business and I am pretty sure he probably knows where a lot of his money goes. He has an American right by the tax code to write off travel and other business expenses. This is money spent on his business to keep it running. I do not understand the animosity that some of these progressives have for a man that works hard, pays what is required of him and does a lot for the community. I am not rich and Phil is not my favorite player, but I have to admit that I was happy when Phil stood up and said something. I don’t think he would have one problem with paying the amount that he does if he felt that government was spending one bit of it wisely.

When did it become bad to make a good living by working hard? Yes I know Phil plays golf, but you cannot deny he works hard. If you are on this website looking around and say to yourself, “I would not trade places with him, play pro golf, won big $ and lots of tournaments;” then you are a hater.

Reply Report comment
Determined

Jul 26, 2013 at 10:32 pm

Dbl e

You can dismiss the comparison between Phil and Detroit but the reason Detroit is Bankrupt is people like you that see and hate success?? Answer the question everyone in this great country ad the same opportunity as Phil and you find it fair to punish him with this success?? did they’re retake any of your grades and divide ??? You would not accept this but it’s OK for everyone else.

Reply Report comment
Dbl E

Jul 26, 2013 at 8:52 pm

Enough with Detroit. Comparing PM’s taxes and the bankruptcy of a metropolitan city is comparing apples and Detroit. My only point is that an über wealthy golfer, whose game I admire, has zero business complaining about getting taxed on the 2 million he made wacking a ball around when people are losing jobs and homes. As far as paying his team a percentage of his earnings lets not forget he is rich enough to afford a team, none of whom he is in any way obligated to employ except maybe his caddie. I’m not sure about that on tour. I don’t hate. He makes what he makes and I’m fine with it. Just don’t publically complain about the woes of being rich.

Reply Report comment
- naflack
  
  Jul 27, 2013 at 1:22 am
  
  well said.
  
  Reply Report comment
Jamie

Jul 26, 2013 at 7:48 pm

Someone else touched on it earlier. In addition to the gigantic tax burden, he’s paying Bones (likely 10% of the $2.2M), hi agent, a manager and probably countless other professionals he needs to keep the business running.

Reply Report comment
Dbl E

Jul 26, 2013 at 4:57 pm

Here is a point I think everyone should be mindful of; if there were a formula to rank the best teachers, policemen or women, etc. in the country, the best golfers would out-earn those significantly more important, more valuable pros by 100,000 country miles. Lets also not forget that he has a bed on his private jet, commutes to work via helicopter and has companies piling his driveway with free cars, clothes, Rolexes and amenities pretty much everyone else on the planet pays full freight for. And when he does pay, he ain’t paying 3900.00 a gallon for gas because he makes more money than us regulars paying 3.90 for unleaded. When it comes to the conversation regarding what a fair tax rate is, especially in this day, someone running a business trying to find a way to keep the five people on his payroll employed should always be the voice above the fold and not a golfer worth half a billion dollars. GOLFWRX is losing perspective by posting this insulting article. And let the author defend his stance, not his pal.

Reply Report comment
- Determined
  
  Jul 26, 2013 at 5:35 pm
  
  DBL
  
  Here is also the point you need to realize? If Phil plays terrible how much does he earn?? Did all those Teachers, fireman or women have the opportunity to earn a living at golf?? When you attended school did they ever take some of your grades and dived amount other people? Maybe they didn’t study that hard or maybe wasn’t as dedicated to the project but yet WE should award this behavior??? This attitude is why Detroit is bankrupt???
  
  WOW why do you hate so bad
  
  Reply Report comment
- naflack
  
  Jul 26, 2013 at 6:42 pm
  
  I think the majority of us lecherous Americans would tend to agree with you but of course we are parasites in the eyes the wealthy, so who cares what we think anyway…right?
  
  Reply Report comment
c

Jul 26, 2013 at 4:56 pm

Wouldn’t he have incorporated himself. That way he can pay a salary to his agent, sports psychologist, Bones, Butch Harmon, his wife, an assistant, etc out of his corporation. That would bring his total income down a bit but I guess his earnings out of the corporation would still be into the multi-millions per year.

Reply Report comment
Ryan

Jul 26, 2013 at 1:02 pm

I hate to rain on the authors parade here, but Phil’s statement was basically “taxes in the US are too high”. To say “Phil is right! Look, he was taxed at a ridiculous rate outside the US” really, really misses the point of his statement.

Reply Report comment
- Zak Kozuchowski
  
  Jul 26, 2013 at 1:17 pm
  
  Nothing in the story suggests that Ben was taking Phil’s tax comments literally. How do I know? It’s in the story!
  
  “Mickelson’s math, with respect to his earnings within the U.S. was a bit off, to be sure.”
  
  I don’t see how people who have comprehended the story can say that Ben has “missed the point.” Clearly, he didn’t.
  
  – Zak
  
  Reply Report comment
Determined

Jul 26, 2013 at 9:57 am

Can someone say DETROIT…. It wont be long as if I would admit I’m a Democrat I would hide knowing what Democrats did to this great city. They followed the Democrat Model just like they are doing to Phil and America and amazing it didnt work????

Reply Report comment
Les

Jul 26, 2013 at 7:06 am

The author is absolutely wrong with regard to Phil’s stateside taxation.

39% for federal income tax
13% for state income tax
6.2-12.4% Social Security – I assume he’s self employed and pays both employer and employee rates
3.8% Medicare tax
God knows what else he pays for local wage taxes, property and school tax, sales tax, etc.

Reply Report comment
- naflack
  
  Jul 26, 2013 at 3:21 pm
  
  Thank you!!
  
  Reply Report comment
  - naflack
    
    Jul 26, 2013 at 3:25 pm
    
    Oops…replied to the wrong comment, please ignore 😉
    
    Reply Report comment
Alüminyum Boru

Jul 26, 2013 at 3:08 am

good artical for me. thank you.

Reply Report comment
naflack

Jul 26, 2013 at 1:30 am

at least we were able to keep politics out of this for a little while…

Reply Report comment
cg

Jul 25, 2013 at 6:38 pm

remember, all the parasites need a host to feed off of…heaven forbid that they actually pay for their own food, rent, cellphone, school lunch, school breakfast, school supplies, bus fare, etc.

far better to let someone else do it…but be sure to vote for the poverty pimp who promises stuff if you keep him in office..

until you become DETROIT!!!

Reply Report comment
- Cyd
  
  Jul 27, 2013 at 8:59 am
  
  Could not have said it better myself
  
  Reply Report comment
W

Jul 25, 2013 at 4:33 pm

Yes we would all like to have his problem, but is 60% plus fair? The top 1% pay 35-40 of the 3 trillion collected annually by the US Government. I don’t have a problem paying taxes but a huge problem the way they spend them.

Small business owner

Reply Report comment
Dbl E

Jul 25, 2013 at 12:49 pm

That may be the tax on paper, but what’s the reality of someone in PM’s position regarding opportunities to shelter that money in a way 99% of us can’t? He’s not handing his W-4 over to Stan at H&R Block. I’m pretty sure what he says he pays and what his KPMG team actually pay are very different. And the fact remains, he plays golf for approx. 50 mil per. Anyone crying for him needs to get off his jock because he is spending exactly ZERO time worrying about your bank account.

Reply Report comment
- jason
  
  Jul 25, 2013 at 4:58 pm
  
  Regarding opportunities to shelter they are few and far between for a wage earner, which Phil is. He can deduct travel costs probably, he doesnt get many of the normal deductions because he earns too much. He can max out retirement accounts tax free. But that is capped around 20k annually. Hardly a “shelter” when he just coughed up nearly 1.6 million in taxes for a 2.1 milion dollar win. I know it is a lot of money and he isnt suffering, but these same laws affect the guy bustin his tail every day doing a great job owning a small business who might make 275K one year and 75K the next, and paid 100k in taxes on his good year. Now stripped of hard earned cash he fires three employees and tries to make it work, with a high probablility the IRS will look at his 75K and call him a liar the next year and come after him. Investment earnings can be more easily sheltered. Wage earnings cannot.
  
  Reply Report comment
naflack

Jul 25, 2013 at 12:13 pm

Considering his original comments were regarding his tax situation in the states, not abroad, this doesn’t do much to support his argument. As many people stated at the time of his original comments, he’s not paying anywhere near that, that’s the role of accountants and tax experts for the wealthy and you know he’ s taking advantage of their services. I get it, this wraps up his original comments with a pretty ribbon but none the less these are rare and very distinct circumstances which apply to exceedingly few. Plus he could always opt out of playing across the pond but i’m guessing he’ll figure out a way to be happy in spite of this very very unfortunate circumstance (insert eye roll).

Reply Report comment
- Jeff
  
  Jul 25, 2013 at 1:43 pm
  
  his comments were regarding CA state tax, which went up before the year. If you read the article, you’ll see he’s paying 13.3% in california because there’s no foreign tax credit (which many states have). If there were a foreign tax credit, he might even get money back from CA…assuming he didn’t make anything else in the US (which he already did by finishing second at he US Open).
  
  Reply Report comment
  - naflack
    
    Jul 25, 2013 at 3:03 pm
    
    I read the entire article and the article regarding his earlier comments on the matter…
    Why should California give him a tax credit for taxes paid in another country, that isn’t California’s problem?
    If another state in the union is willing to give people this form of tax credit then perhaps Phil should move there per his original statement. This isn’t any different than a poor person asking for a handout!
    
    Reply Report comment
    - naflack
      
      Jul 25, 2013 at 3:07 pm
      
      Furthermore, if he doesn’t want to move he should lobby to have the tax code changed instead of publicly whining about a problem that every American would love to have.
      
      Reply Report comment
    - Jason
      
      Jul 26, 2013 at 4:27 pm
      
      Why should California get money earned in another country?
      
      There are alot of sides to this and unless this conversation is taking place between a bunch of tax experts then you probably have no clue what your talking about and you should be quiet.
      
      Reply Report comment
      - naflack
        
        Jul 26, 2013 at 6:35 pm
        
        By that logic there shouldn’t be an article or any subsequent commentary from anyone outside the situation which I suspect includes you as well…good day.
        
        Reply Report comment
- jason
  
  Jul 25, 2013 at 4:14 pm
  
  This post shows the ignorance of the common american on taxes. Those who can use accountants are THE “wealthy” investors who have most of their income paid in dividends and as capitol gains, this can be hidden shifted and parlayed other ways. In short investment income is taxed differently. ANY wage earner salaried or otherwise (Rapper, Actor, Small business owner, professional athlete) will be subject to a tax on their income. It is generally inescapable (a few deductions here or there but not a significant amount). For Phil in the US it probably breaks down as such. US income tax 39% california tax 13.5% Social Security and other fees 5-7%. There is no magic for a wealthy wage earner. Phil really and truly does most likely pay around 60% here in the U.S in taxes. That is the truth of the matter, the fact that you make less, and want a slice of his pie doesnt make it any more morally correct that he pays his and millions others fair share.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - naflack
    
    Jul 26, 2013 at 1:27 am
    
    i know people in high level finance positions and tax experts, i also know wealthy people who earn their money through investment as opposed to labor. you may be correct in that phil pays federal which most people dont but based on repeated conversations with these people i trust…i’ll stand by my comment, he is not paying 60% of his total income in tax. the things he could write off alone drops that amount, not to mention charitable donations.
    who the hell said anything about wanting a slice of phils pie?
    please speak for yourself.
    
    Reply Report comment
8thehardway

Jul 25, 2013 at 11:09 am

“One for you, one, two for me.” I forget which comedy that line came from but am often reminded of the math.

Reply Report comment
- zack
  
  Jul 26, 2013 at 2:20 pm
  
  was it parks and rec? ron swanson?
  
  Reply Report comment
Kris

Jul 25, 2013 at 11:06 am

I thought we in Canada (as a socialist country) would be a lot higher taxed. But our top tax rates (depending on province) go between 39% (oil rich Alberta) to 50% (Nova Scotia for some reason). Mostly between 42 and 45. And to get over 35 in most places you have to earn 6 figures.

Reply Report comment
- John
  
  Jul 25, 2013 at 1:19 pm
  
  See, the thing is, (we) Americans don’t really have all the freedom many think we have.
  
  Reply Report comment
Big_5_Hole

Jul 25, 2013 at 11:03 am

“Of the $2,167,500 Mickelson earned on his sojurn across the pond, after taxes and expenses, the golfer will take home only about $650,000.”

That is obscene. No wonder the super-rich try and hide their money.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

1 day ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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Vincenzi: The 6 biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters

Published

1 day ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.

Scheffler In a League of His Own

In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.

For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.

The Future is Now

Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.

With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.

Nostalgia Wins

I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.

Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.

The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.

Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.

Bryson Moves the Needle

Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.

It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.

Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.

LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed

Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.

The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.

This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.

Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.

Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.

To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.

With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.

Rory’s Struggles Continues

Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.

I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.

McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.

Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.

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Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters

Published

1 week ago

Apr 9, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.

RELATED: Vincenzi’s 2024 Masters betting preview: Niemann to play star role at Augusta National

In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.

Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.

Placement Bets:

Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):

I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.

Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):

Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.

In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).

Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.

Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.

Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.

Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):

The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.

This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.

Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.

Top Nationalities:

Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):

I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.

I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.

This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.

Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):

While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.

He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.

Tournament Head-to-Heads:

Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa

JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).

Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.

Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark

I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.

Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.

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