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“It’s a shame that all of our golf life can’t be spent like this night”

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If you are reading this, we have a lot in common. I suspect that like me, you are a boomer, reasonably intellectual, middle to upper middle class, and a golfer. You are probably pretty good at our sport, probably have an index of between 8 and 16, and above all, you are a realist about your ability and your potential for becoming the golfer you always wanted to be.

I suspect you went through a period of time when you thought that if you bought the right equipment, you would become a great ball striker and a significantly better golfer. You went through several drivers, putters, wedges, and fairway woods. When utility clubs became the rage, you bought a couple. You were happy to exchange your persimmons for metal “woods” (although like me, you never really figured out what to call them).

Then there are the irons we have both invested in. We lined up for perimeter balanced, cast, oversized, graphite shafted “stuff.” We tried this set because they were longer. We bought that set because they were more accurate. We tried this set because they were a graduated set, going from hybrid long irons to cavity-back mid irons to forged-blade short irons. We even decided that iron sets were passé. What we really should do, we told ourselves, were to buy our clubs like they did in the old days – one club at a time with each addition to our bag specially designed for the job they were bought to do.

Strangely, looking back, we came to realize that in spite of all our work, all our thought, all of the money we spent – we were not fundamentally better golfers than we had ever been. If we were better, it was probably because we came to know our limitations and our strengths. We didn’t put ourselves in positions that would turn a one-shot penalty into a three shot penalty. We worked on our swing. We learned to relax. We read books on sports psychology. We watched and thought about the lessons we took away from “The Legend of Bagger Vance,” ‘The Greatest Match Ever Played,” and even in its own twisted way, “Caddy Shack.”

[youtube id=”LGKkmpbhv9k” width=”620″ height=”360″]

We are members of a golf club (or country club) because we love playing on nice courses and we hate having our valuable time wasted by drunks and unskilled people who frequent municipal courses. We take a golf trip or two every year or so. And we probably belong to a Men’s Club. We certainly have a bunch of guys we like playing golf with.

Most of us have been playing golf for many, many years. We learned the game from our dads who are unfortunately no longer around. We learned how to be gentlemen (or women) on the course. We learned how to fix a divot. We learned how to rake bunkers, lay the flag gently onto the green or better yet, just off the green. We learned where to put our bag when we were putting. We always wanted to drive a golf cart and were secretly thrilled when we became rich enough to afford to use one. But we learned how to drive them so as to not impact fragile grass.

We came to know the pain of losing our best playing partners – our dad’s, our older brothers, our best friend, our uncle. We reached for the phone to call them when Tiger chipped in to win the Masters, only to remember at the last moment that they wouldn’t be on the line to talk to about it.

Fortunately, we have taught our children to play the game. We had to drag them at first. Baseball, basketball, and/or video games were more fun. Now they are playing pretty well. We go out together when we can. They can out-hit us but we can out putt them — our short games are better, and our guile is superior.

But it started to happen. We slowly came to feel differently about the game and where we are in relation to it. We loved things about golf that have nothing to do with the “sport” of golf. The arc of a well-struck shot, how it feels, how its sounds are much more important now than how far it went. We don’t care whether a pitch shot checks up after one bounce unless the place that it stops is the place we want it to stop. Who cares whether the shot “sucked back”? Did it stay on the green? That’s what we care most about.

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Sometimes, when the time is just right, now we walk the course by ourselves. We have that old carry bag we carried when we were in high school. We fill it with the set of Wilson Staff irons we worked all summer mowing lawns to buy. Somehow, we saved them along the beautiful MacGregor Eye-O-Matic Persimmon Woods that were Dad’s and the BullsEye putter we’ve had since college. They are in the bag, too.

They should feel heavy with only that single strap to transfer the weight to our shoulder. That shoulder had the rotator cuff fixed a couple of years ago, after all. But somehow, the weight doesn’t hurt as much as it should on this beautiful evening. It’s so quiet now. Everyone has gone home for the day. It’s so quiet that you can actually hear the sound of your drive hitting the fairway 225 yards away from the tee.

They say that persimmon drivers just don’t hit the ball as far as steel faced drivers do. They’re right, they don’t. But there is little beauty in a painted club head compared to the elegance of wood carved into a club head. The sound of steel hitting ball is abrupt and harsh. There is little information that can make it to your hands because of the muting of the graphite shaft. But the feel of the ball coming off that persimmon face races to you, literally screaming to you where the ball went. You can “see” the ball, even though the cataract that is growing slowly in your right eye makes actually seeing the flight of the ball difficult.

If the persimmon head told you about the shot, it was not the only messenger. The steel shaft told you that you “nutted” it as well. Still 320 yards out, you take out the old three-wood that you saw your dad hit so many times. You take your stance, look up a couple of times, waggle twice, set and fire. Again, you know it was hit it where you wanted it, 180 yards, down the middle.

Walking down the fairway, you listen for the ghosts you know you are walking with. You can hear them, your dad told you, but only if you are if you listen. They’re laughing and joking, talking about games that were played in the misty past. They only come out at evening-time, when the course is almost empty, They only share their joy, the joy of the game, with people who deserve to hear about it, to learn about it, and to pass it on. You know they’ve nominated and elected you into their club. It’s a feeling that makes the pain go way, lightens your step, and brings a tear to your eye.

Still, you have 105 yards left. With your set of graphite shafted, technologically marvelous irons, it would be barely a gap wedge. But you know that the loft of your modern gap wedge is the same as the loft of your Staff 9 iron. So you’re not gulled. It’s the 9 iron that you grab and set behind the ball. As you draw the club back, you remember all the great times, the great lessons, and the great people you have known because of the shepherd’s game we play.

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Down the club comes. You strike the ball almost at the bottom of its downward arc. The club finds the ball and dives into the ground, carving a shallow divot just in front of where the ball comes. Up the shaft comes, carrying your hands high – higher than your shoulder, almost even with your ear. Your right shoulder forces your chin to the left. Your right hip has squared itself with the left. Your body is facing the hole, now. You pick up the ball with eyes and watch it fall to the green. The ball checks up smartly, five feet below the hole.

The shot is a beautiful arc, that product of the forged steel club head. The vibration that raced up then down the shaft, through the rough, cord grips, to your hands. Whether the feeling made it to your soul like the old saying claims is debatable. But you know for sure that the feeling is like no other. Hearing the ball drop into the cup is like no other, too.

It’s a shame that all of our golf life can’t be spent like this night. It’s a shame we can’t play in the peace of a quiet course, the peace of shots purely struck with clubs that have stood up through time. It’s a shame that they have to go back to the basement to sit and wait for another day to come along. It is a shame. Isn’t it?

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Besides being married to the same wonderful woman for more than 40 years, father to two great kids and grandfather to 2.5-plus more, I am a dedicated, life-long golfer. My life's work is being an associate professor of accountancy at a fine midwestern, Catholic university, Newman University in Wichita, Kan. In addition to my teaching responsibilities, I am the academic mentor for the Newman Jet's men's basketball and women's golf teams. Some of most joyful activities also involve writing and reading. GolfWRX has given me incredible opportunities to live out a fantasy that I could never have dreamed of. Because of GolfWRX, I am able to do both about golf, my favorite subject. For that, I give my thanks to Richard, Ryan, Zak and all my teammates at GolfWRX.

10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Fred

    Aug 12, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    As the president of the American Purple Prose Society, I give this maudlin, cliched and trite article our highest award, the Tin Eyeball.

  2. 8thehardway

    Aug 11, 2013 at 11:49 am

    I kept the post brief hoping to lure the author out of hiding but it’s a difficult position to defend. I think more words allows more places for the author to hide behind, but here’s the full scope of my thoughts and feelings and thanks for asking…

    I wouldn’t expect many “drunks” (in the author’s sense, perpetually inebriated) to golf but when they do, why would they frequent the one venue that doesn’t serve alcohol? Any conclusion must speak to an indifference or tolerance that occurs throughout America’s 2000+ municipal courses and, until clarified, exists as a blanket indictment of every participant.

    Does the author believe the random distribution of golfing drunks gravitates toward municipal courses because of universally bad management and indifferent staff or an exceedingly tolerant golfing public? Does it seem to him even remotely possible that a mix of golfers including parents playing with their children and golfers with the authority to enforce, or even make laws would endure six-hour rounds, dodge drives and tolerate alcohol-fueled vandalism or that management/staff would show a continued indifference to on-course complaints, higher maintenance budgets, confrontations and lawsuits?

    I’ve played hundreds of rounds on seven local municipal courses and find no basis for such a provocative and offensive statement; it demeans all who contribute to and enjoy the experience of municipal golf and negatively influences those considering it. It promotes an ‘us/them’ approach that is out of place within the community of golfers and it’s inclusion makes absolutely no sense within the theme of the article itself.

    Why introduce such discordance, other than to promote a divide so deeply embedded that its uncritical acceptance constitutes an integral part of his ideal life. It seems the ghosts who speak to him are country club ghosts; not surprisingly, they also make judgements about who deserves to hear them expound on ‘the joy of the game.’ I’d have a hard time understanding that paradox but apparently the author’s ears are perfectly attuned.

    The author wrote that he learned to be a gentleman on the course; I hope completes the remainder of his education.

  3. 8thehardway

    Aug 9, 2013 at 9:49 pm

    ” We are members of a golf club (or country club) because we love playing on nice courses and we hate having our valuable time wasted by drunks and unskilled people who frequent municipal courses. ”

    What makes you think drunks frequent municipal courses?

  4. chris franklin

    Aug 8, 2013 at 3:31 pm

    Stick with the day job……

  5. Arnold

    Aug 7, 2013 at 11:48 pm

    Smitty,

    I’ve done many an evening as you have so articulately and so aptly described, yet there is something to be said for the first light, the first to marked the dew filled course with but your foot prints. How I loved the sight of the rooster tail but not the ball falling well short. It always took until the 4th hole for the greens to dry out, and then to the sixth hole for my pant legs to dry.

    It’s been a while back yet I seem to still remember. Thanks Smitty for reminding me of those favorite things that I’d thought that I’d forgotten.

    Thanks Buddy

    Mac

  6. Rob

    Aug 7, 2013 at 5:15 pm

    I’m still young but I live for playing alone at that time of day! There is nothing like being alone on the course when the shadows are getting long, the air is getting brisk, and the only sound you hear is the clacking of your clubs. It’s so peaceful, and so relaxing – I love it.

  7. RLL

    Aug 7, 2013 at 3:59 pm

    Great article, George. There are lots of us who know what you describe so well. I like playing alone at that time of day, too.

  8. paul

    Aug 6, 2013 at 10:17 pm

    Nice writing. kind of depressing though. not my style. and i am still young. makes me want to stay that way.

  9. Martin

    Aug 6, 2013 at 5:54 pm

    Great read, I don’t have my old stuff anymore but the thrill of a perfectly executed knockdown 5 iron still send shivers down my spine and makes the club twirl automatically in my hands. Watching the ball fly when you know it’s perfect is one life’s great feelings.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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