Opinion & Analysis

5 Players who can win The Open on Sunday

Published

11 years ago

Jul 19, 2013

It’s the final round of The Open Championship, which means the once lush green hues at the Muirfield property have been baked out by the sun and wind-blown into a more diabolical light brown.

The Open Championship has turned into a marathon horse race on a fast track. Tempers are running hot, and golf balls running hotter.

Muirfield, the home of the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers, has given the best golfers in the world fits through the first three rounds. It’s no surprise that the previous champions at the venue in the past half-century are not only Hall-of-famers, but legends of the game. The winner this week will join the likes of Cotton, Nicklaus, Player, Trevino, Watson (Tom, not Bubba), Faldo and Els on the list of Open champions that have won on the hallowed grounds of Muirfield.

Ball striking, imagination, a few fortunate bounces and (as with any round of golf) putting will be paramount to joining the list of golfing greats who have beaten back the brutal test of links golf that is Muirfield.

Early week pretenders were filtered off the leaderboard by the course’s unusually firm and fast conditions. Through 54-holes, the top of the leaderboard is left with only a handful of contenders, ready to have their names etched into the Claret Jug below the name of Ernie Els, the defending champion.

Here are five golfers that have the best opportunity to become the 142nd Open Champion on Sunday, in order of best-to-worst chances:

Tiger Woods: 1-under (T2)

The ultra-firm, fast conditions at Muirfield play to Woods’ strengths.

They allow him to keep his driver hidden beneath a head cover, and stick to a game plan reminiscent of his victory at Hoylake in 2006. That’s why despite his 2-shot deficit heading into the final round, the 14-time major champion is still the man to beat, because how can you bet against one of the best iron players to ever play the game at a venue that’s all about well-placed iron shots?

Over his professional career, Woods has also established himself as one of the best pressure putters of all time, particularly in majors. Westwood, who leads Woods by two shots, and Mahan, who is tied with Woods, are both without a major championship victory, and don’t even figure into the conversation of good pressure putters in their era.

If Tiger is going to regain his major dominance in an ever-growing pool of younger competition, he needs this victory. He knows that better than anyone. He was a poster boy for mental toughness once upon a time, but his self-applied pressure is likely his biggest competition on Sunday.

Lee Westwood: 3-under (1st)

Westwood’s 39 worldwide professional wins, 15 top-10, and 7 top-3 finishes in major championships make him one of the most decorated and experienced players without a major victory. However, his inability to close leaves well-deserved question marks.

Born in England, the fans have tried to carry their local hero to a win on the big stage. With a victory, Westwood would become the first golfer from England to win the British Open since Faldo, ending the 21-year drought.

The 40-year old, ranked No. 12 in the world, recently switched to swing instructor Sean Foley and putting coach Ian-Baker Finch. Westwood has always been known as a wonderful ball-striker, but he has struggled in previous years to make the putts necessary to win. That has golf fans curious to see how his new and improved putting approach will hold up under the stress of a 2-shot leading heading into Sunday.

Saturday saw a mixture of fine putting and signs of shakiness from Westwood. He will need to make solid strokes early in tomorrow’s round in order to set the tone of confidence.

Westwood’s cushion over Mahan and Woods seems comfortable on paper, but it is anything but safe with the unpredictability of links golf and his previous history of missing out at the majors.

Adam Scott: Even (4^th)

On the back of Adam Scott, Australia gained its first Masters championship earlier this year with his dramatic playoff victory. The green jacket also meant Scott shed the burden of the “best player without a major” labels.

In last year’s Open, he notoriously bogeyed his closing four holes, handing the Claret Jug to Ernie Els. Scott has since overcome his major struggles, surely opening the floodgates for more success.

One of the most pure ball strikers in the world, Scott’s career was always plagued with poor putting. For now, and until the anchored-putter ban takes affect, the long-putter has been Scott’s salvation. By filling in the blank that has burdened his game for years previously, Scott has once again put himself in major contention.

His putter, however, remains on the stand for questioning in the biggest moments. Scott is only three shots back, but birdies will be very difficult to come by in the final round, and a few bogies are almost unavoidable. That means the leaders will likely have to come back for Scott to win, or his long putter will have to get red hot.

Hunter Mahan: 1-under (T2)

While many of his contemporaries have rejected the challenges of links golf on a brutally quick links course, Mahan has embraced them.

“The course is just awesome. It’s going to test every part of your game,” Mahan said earlier in the week. “The speed is up, and we really got to think ahead out here… It’s really neat.”

Sunday at a major championship requires steely nerves, not just a happy-go-lucky attitude, but Mahan sits at 1-under for the week following an impressive Saturday 68.

He’s ranked No. 23 in the world, has five PGA Tour wins, and boasts a robotic swing that Sean Foley has deemed the prototype for his other students (namely Tiger Woods). Mahan’s career resume in majors is less than stellar with only five career top-10 finishes, but a T-4 finish at the U.S. Open last month at Merion may have given him the confidence to contend late into Sunday afternoon (or morning, depending where you’re watching).

Mahan, one of the four members of the pop band Golf Boys, needs to prove his worth on the big stage—Muirfield, not Carnegie Hall.

Phil Mickelson: 2-over (T9)

Despite two consecutive rounds over par and a five-stroke deficit, Phil has the propensity for theatrics. He’s made football fields worth of par putts at Muirfield, but will need to make birdies on Sunday to contend.

The British Open has baffled Phil throughout his career, as he admittedly just didn’t like links golf. He’s claimed to turn that hatred into love, proven by his first win overseas last week at the Scottish Open.

Teeing off earlier than the leaders could give Phil an advantage with a couple more minutes of morning saturation. If he can come out early and make birdies, post a number in the 60’s and get to even par or 1-under for the championship, the leaders may crumble around him down the stretch on the demanding closing holes.

Phil will hope to add the Claret Jug to his major championship trophy case, which would be his first “Open” (British or United States) championship victory. Muirfield may be “too much course” for Phil to make up a 5-shots, but his go-for-broke mentality makes him the perfect suspect to make a comeback.

Your Reaction?

LIKE0
LEGIT0
WOW0
LOL0
IDHT0
FLOP0
OB0
SHANK0

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

2 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

Your Reaction?

LIKE7
LEGIT3
WOW1
LOL1
IDHT0
FLOP3
OB1
SHANK1

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

2 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide.

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory.

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second.

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

Richard Bland
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

Abraham Ancer
Graeme McDowell
Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann
Dean Burmester

Putting

Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

Your Reaction?

LIKE12
LEGIT3
WOW1
LOL1
IDHT0
FLOP1
OB1
SHANK1

Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

6 days ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

Your Reaction?