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Four golfers to avoid at the driving range

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In a previous article, I highlighted the four golfers to avoid when playing a round of golf.

The list provided a basis to enhance the enjoyment of your weekly game, and keep you from quitting forever. However, as people with lives outside of golf, we know it isn’t realistic to get in 18 holes as much as we’d hope. Sometimes, we don’t even have time for a quick nine holes before sunset.

As golf addicts with an itch to swing the club, this leaves us with only one option: the public golf range. You know, the double-decker golf range with 180 stalls; equipped with golf mats, rubber tees, a mini-golf course, a trivial pro shop that only sells Wilson golf gloves and Pink Lady golf balls, a batting cage, and yellow, limited-flight Srixon range balls. Everyone has a local public range that they have resorted to, either in the off-season, or just to hit a small bucket after work.

This installment of “players to avoid,” features golfers at the local public range. These people will no doubt have a negative effect on your off-season/after-work golfing experience.

The Jack Byrnes, a.k.a. “The Over Bearing Father/Husband”

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We all know him. He’s the guy that stands behind his son/daughter/wife and tells them what to do. The advice he’s giving is not only fundamentally flawed, but it’s articulated in the most condescending way possible.

Nothing is better than when he goes to show the “secret move,” and duffs the demonstration shot. The worst part is that he thinks he’s doing his loved one’s a favor by teaching them the game. Unfortunately, all he’s really doing is robbing them of enjoyment, instilling poor swing habits and scarring them for life.

Phrases you’ll hear from The Overbearing Father/Husband:

  • “Are you stupid?”
  • “That’s terrible!”
  • “How can I fix something that bad?”
  • “Stop wasting my time.”

The Animal House, a.k.a “The College Kids”

Dress-the-Part-Animal-House-4

This is the group of degenerates at the back end of the range in jeans and cut off T-shirts. They’re undoubtedly drinking Keystone Light’s (finishing off the 12-pack that they cracked in the parking lot), using borrowed drivers from the pro shop (which they’ll probably steal afterwards) and spend most of their time throwing golf balls at the range picker, rather than working on their swing plane.

I’m all for the growth of golf and accepting new people that want to learn the game, but disrespect is a different story. And watch your mouth — cursing isn’t cool when there are kids around.

Phrases you’ll hear from The College Kids:

  • “Dude.”
  • “Foooooooore!”
  • “Hold my beer.”
  • (Sound of a driver hitting a beer can).

The Tin Cup, a.k.a “ The Gadget Guy”

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This guy provides distraction based purely off humor. He spent $700+ on new gadgets over the winter, and he’s using them all at once. He has alignment tools, swing plane aids, core building enhancements and hip-turn helpers. With all this assistance, he’s still the one in the corner of the range hitting chili peppers up Lee Janzen’s butt (Tin Cup movie reference).

Hey Romeo, tell him to put all the change in his left pocket, for everyone’s benefit.

Phrases you’ll hear from The Gadget Guy:

  • “I’m gonna get it soon.”
  • “All I need to do is learn this one move.”
  • “By mid-summer I’ll be scratch.”
  • “You’ll see.”

The Happy Gilmore, a.k.a “The Crazy Person”

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There’s no other way to describe this guy — he’s a head case. He’s the golfer with two jumbo buckets in front to him, getting increasingly frustrated with each swing.

He’s audibly yelling cuss words, convincing himself he’s terrible and lining up ball after ball hoping for better results. You almost start to feel bad for him, until he throws his new Taylormade R1 driver down the range, farther than you can hit your pitching wedge (impressive).

The golf range is for game improvement and relaxation, not fits of rage and self-loathing verbal assaults. Maybe he’d be better-suited taking fastballs off his forehead in the batting cages.

Phrases you’ll hear from The Crazy Person (censored for offensive language):

  • “I should quit.
  • “I don’t enjoy playing golf.”
  • “Wow, I’m really bad at this.”
  • “My life is worthless.”

This list of golfers should leave you with a decent idea of who to avoid at the public golf range.  Whether you’re going to hit a jumbo bucket to work out the kinks, or simply blowing off steam after work, this should help you keep your sanity this season.  Hit ‘em long and straight, but don’t be a distraction.

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He played on the Hawaii Pacific University Men's Golf team and earned a Masters degree in Communications. He also played college golf at Rutgers University, where he graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Journalism.

24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. OVER THE TOP GOLF

    Oct 3, 2013 at 3:30 pm

    When I can take the time, I’ll go to the range, pick out a terrible hacker, show him my 5 set-up changes, then sit back and enjoy his shock at hitting straight golf shots. Wish I could meet up with Charles Barkley out there one night. I’d be driving a Bentley soon afterward.

  2. Kristin

    Jul 24, 2013 at 7:50 am

    Pretty sure the overly sensitive whiners with no sense of humor who are taking offense to this and getting all worked up are likely Happy Gilmores, Animal Houses, or Jack Byrnes and you hit the tee shot a little close to their flag. Relax, friends, this article was meant to be funny. And it was. Get over yourselves. Could also be internet trolls just going around trying to stir up controversy and ruin everyone’s day.

  3. Andy

    Jul 12, 2013 at 2:30 am

    This article is comedic if you get it, offensive if you let it.

    Here’s food for thought for future GolfWRX rages (Marty, suggested reading):-

    The better, mentally stronger golfer doesn’t get too upset when a bad shot is hit; vice versa for a lesser golfer (read Chapter 6 – Bob Rotella’s ‘Golf Is Not A Game Of Perfect’ if you disagree).

    The irony of the situation is, those few who have let so petty an article upset/offend/outrage them (I say petty with respect, I thought it was quite funny), you have some work to do want if you want to improve your golf (and in turn, be a better person).

    You won’t get far in life if you let petty nothings, such as thus, evoke such negativity within.

    And to those right now thinking “It’s not negativity! It’s my opinion and it’s my right to share it!! Who are you to tell me what to think?!”, my message is this:

    Shut up.

  4. Zak Kozuchowski

    Jul 10, 2013 at 10:16 pm

    Let’s cool it, guys.

    – Zak

  5. Ronald Montesano

    Jul 10, 2013 at 7:18 pm

    Why would you want to avoid these guys/gals?

    • Andrew Tursky

      Jul 10, 2013 at 8:25 pm

      The article is a comedic take on different people and personalities you encounter at the driving range as they pertain to characters in popular media, not to be taken offensively.

      • Marty

        Jul 10, 2013 at 10:11 pm

        One problem- the article wasn’t funny. If it were, maybe you wouldn’t have people taking offense. Try harder next time?

  6. Nicholas

    Jul 10, 2013 at 4:56 pm

    Sounds to me like you have concentration problems, social issues, are worried about others rather than your own game, or you don’t understand the game of golf as it relates to everyone. I guess it can’t be helped.

  7. John

    Jul 10, 2013 at 2:01 pm

    Yeah not a fan of this article…you started by saying public range, so you should’ve just stopped there…a public driving range is for ANYONE to go and use and enjoy however they may please. Golf is a game for everyone, all ages all personalities, and it’s articles like this that is really hurting the game with this elitist mentality. Because some people don’t practice as seriously and as often as you they need to be avoided?…if drinking is allowed, drink beers, if there aren’t kids around, yell and swear as much as you like until someone asks you (nicely) not to…seems like the guy to avoid is the guy who has problems with everyone around him at the public range because he’s such a serious golfer (must be turning pro soon)…if you don’t like the people around you, wear blinders and headphones, then rewrite this article to include yourself

    • Dave

      Sep 20, 2013 at 10:29 pm

      The range is not there to be used however one pleases. There is etiquette just like on the golf course. If you’re yelling profanity and throwing clubs or drunk to the point of endangering others we don’t have to just deal with it. Why would the folks who are respectful have to be polite in how they ask another person to stop acting in such a way when the violator isn’t giving anyone else the same respect? The comment “yell and swear as much as you like until someone asks you (nicely) not to” is just plain ignorant. The problem isn’t “everyone” around us, just the jackass who’s acting a fool. The sense of entitlement to do as you please regardless of how it affects others is an issue. If you think you should be able to do whatever you want wherever you want to the problem is yours, not some elitist bunch of golf nuts.

  8. Marty

    Jul 7, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    Some of us can only afford the public range. Sorry if we don’t fit the bill of what real golfers should be like.

    • Jonathan Chicks

      Jul 10, 2013 at 8:16 pm

      Relax bud its just a humorous article pointing out the types of people who we have all seen at the range. It has nothing to do with what one can afford. If you think one of these is you, then you should adjust how you play at the range, as it makes the experience worse for everyone else. The only bill to fit of what a real golfer is, would be to act with respect.

      • Marty

        Jul 10, 2013 at 10:12 pm

        Hey, thanks BUD! I will take exactly 0% of your advice to heart!

  9. WarrePeace

    Jul 4, 2013 at 3:20 pm

    The one I especially like is the big buff guy in a tight polo shirt who brings his girlfriend to watch him hit balls or even better- to follow him in a golf tournament. Since I am only 5’6″ but have played competitively for many years, I love to settle in next to these guys and just flight balls at every target and then hit it 40 yrds past the big brute with the driver swinging easy and listen to them getting more and more pissed. Finally the girl will say- how come that guy can hit it farther than you?- Then the lid comes off the boiler and the guy starts swinging as hard as he can- only to yield 60 yrd slices ha ha- I love golf, the great equalizer of men. It’s even more comical in a tournament where there is trouble right and left.

    • Tyler

      Jul 5, 2013 at 5:57 pm

      You do realize you just sounded like the big buff brutes that drag their girlfriends to te course, right?

    • brian

      Jul 6, 2013 at 9:11 pm

      so you go to the range to show off?

    • Dirk

      Jul 8, 2013 at 1:36 pm

      Hey Bro!

      Ever hear of this thing called a Napoleon complex? Might want to look into it–it could explain why you have problems connecting with others!

      • ray

        Jul 11, 2019 at 8:14 am

        Spoken like a poor golfers with insecurity issues who wants the status quo.

        Face it, he’s better than you. Period.

        Ps. Look up napolean complex and understand it properly..

    • IgnoranceIsBliss

      Jul 12, 2013 at 5:30 am

      … and then you woke up and realised you were still 5’6″ with a 150M bunt off the tee?

  10. Carl

    Jul 4, 2013 at 5:00 am

    My personal favorite. “How far is it to the back flag? Only 345? Not sure that’s deep enough for me but I guess it’ll work”

  11. Mitch

    Jul 4, 2013 at 12:03 am

    Was at the range the other day when the random guy next to me turned and asked me, “do you play?”……….. Literally shocked by the stupidity of that question.

  12. Jeffrey

    Jul 3, 2013 at 4:22 pm

    Look, I didn’t throw my R1, it slipped.

    • Corey

      Jul 3, 2013 at 4:30 pm

      The Crazy Person to Romeo:

      Look, you’re the Mexican Mac O’Grady. You need to figure out why I’m still shanking the ball.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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